Current political situation in Nepal : difficult to predict
After the Constitutional Assembly (CA) election the Maoist party became a largest political party in Nepal with 120 seats and Nepali congress party which was known as largest party before became second party with 37 seats, CPN UML 33 seats and MPR Forum became forth with 28 seats but none of these parties have majority in CA. It means Nepalese people don’t want to give clear majority to any political party in this transitional political situation in Nepal and we may say that they want a coalition government leaded by Maoist in this fragile situation. But because of these parties own interest still in Nepal they are fail to form new government.
Just about the time when efforts were being made for forming a coalition government in Nepal, the political drama is going on . The recent alliance of three parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and the Madheshi Janadhikar Forum— only to elect the first President, Vice President and CA Chairman is an example in this context. After the CPN (Maoist) emerged as the largest party in the Constituent Assembly, all the other parliamentary parties were terrified and began creating obstacles in the process of forming a new government led by the Maoists. The ground reality is that the NC, UML and MJF chose to embrace ‘arithmetical system’ by virtually scrapping the politics of consensus in practice since historic 12-point understanding was signed by the Maoists and the then seven party alliance. Now, the three parties are trying to push the country back into the dirty swamp of arithmetical politics.
The coalition looks completely unpolitical. All three parties have applied different perspectives over the federal state system and Madhesh autonomy. NC is always scared from the federation by saying that it could disintegrate the country. The UML also didn’t have any specific idea on federalism, whereas one of their coalition partners, the MJF, was demanding to establish the federation as one Madhesh one Pradesh principle. So how can they join hands with sharp differences over the autonomy issue? The answer is that they intend to derail the overall peace process and inevitably political instability and all round of anarchy against the people’s desires and aspirations.
If the recent alliance is only for isolating the Maoists from consensual politics, there is a possibility that the nation will fall down again into a bloody civil war. The more the unholy coalition exists the more the consensual environment will fade away. They should learn to respect the people’s fresh mandate that was shown clearly in the historic constituent assembly polls.
When the Maoist became alone in party politics and looses the presidential election they denied to form a government but after having their own party meeting now they announced that they are ready to lead the new government but before this they presented three demands in front of all the parties who represents in CA. Now they are trying to get clear support, not like that what happened just before. We cannot predict anything about what will going to happen next so, let’s wait and see.