미국, 대북압박책 수립 중(NYT, 2005. 2. 14)

북한의 핵무기 보유 선언 몇 달 전부터 미국 정부는 알 카에다에 사용하던 기법을 이용, 북한의 마지막 남은 수입원을 봉쇄하기 위한 새로운 전략을 개발하기 시작했다고 이 계획과 관련된 미 정보 소식통과 정책 관료들이 말했다고 뉴욕 타임스가 14일 보도했다.

뉴욕 타임스는 “북한을 압박하기 위한 초기 단계 조치들이 비밀스러운 ‘일련의 압박 기법’속에 포함돼 있으며 최근 수주간 국가안보회의(NSC)가 다듬어 왔다”고 밝혔다.

새로운 전략은 북한 정권이 화폐위조와 마약밀매, 미사일을 비롯한 무기기술 판매 등으로 수익을 얻는 데 쓰고 금융계좌를 추적해 봉쇄하는 공동노력을 강화하는 것이라고 이 신문은 전했다.

미 정부 관계자들은 새로운 전략이 성공하면 김정일 북한 국방위원장의 권력 장악력을 약화시키는 부수적 효과를 거둘 수 있다고 보고 있다고 이 신문은 밝혔다. 스콧 매클렐런 백악관 대변인은 “이 기법에 대해 “우리의 지속적인 외교노력을 보완한 것”이라고 설명했지만 일부 기법은 이미 한동안 사용돼 온 것이라고 밝혔다.

이들은 그 예로서 일본에서 북한 선박의 선적을 중단시킬 수 있는 일본의 새 해운관계법을 들었다.

이들 정부 관계자들은 이러한 전략에 동맹국들이 동참하기를 원하기 때문에 아직 행동계획으로 입안되지는 않았지만 북한의 핵보유 주장을 계기로 한국과 중국을 이러한 계획에 동참시킬 수 있을 것으로 보았다.

또한 이 신문은 김정일 위원장에 대한 부시대통령의 개인적인 혐오감이 이러한 전략에 반영되어 있으며, 한 전직 관계자의 말을 빌어 부시 대통령이 이 전략에 ‘생각보다 깊이’ 관여하고 있다는 전했다. 그리고 부시 대통령이 북한의 체제전복이 대북정첵의 목적이 아니라고 말해왔지만 북한의 경제적 생명줄을 공격하지 않겠다는 보장을 한 적이 없다는 점을 지적했다.

또한 이 신문은 베이커 전 국무장관이 미국이 취할 수 있는 많은 조치 중에 최선의 방안은 유엔안보리에 의한 대북 경제제재라고 말했다고 보도하고 있다.

(원문)

U.S. Is Shaping Plan to Pressure North Koreans

By DAVID E. SANGER

ASHINGTON, Feb. 13 – In the months before North Korea announced that it possessed nuclear weapons, the Bush administration began developing new strategies to choke off its few remaining sources of income, based on techniques in use against Al Qaeda, intelligence officials and policy makers involved in the planning say.

The initial steps are contained in a classified “tool kit” of techniques to pressure North Korea that has been refined in recent weeks by the National Security Council. The new strategies would intensify and coordinate efforts to track and freeze financial transactions that officials say enable the government of Kim Jong Il to profit from counterfeiting, drug trafficking and the sale of missile and other weapons technology.

Some officials describe the steps as building blocks for what could turn into a broader quarantine if American allies in Asia – particularly China and South Korea – can be convinced that Mr. Kim’s declaration on nuclear weapons last week means he must finally be forced to choose between disarmament and even deeper isolation. China and South Korea have been reluctant to impose penalties on the North.

To some degree the effort arises from Washington’s lack of leverage over North Korea, and the absence of good military options, and it is far from clear that the administration’s development of what one official calls “new instruments of pressure” will work. More than four decades of economic embargos of Cuba, tried by nine presidents, have failed, largely because European, Canadian and Latin American allies have not joined in. Nor have they succeeded against the Burmese, also a major source of drugs. The Secret Service has tried for years to halt North Korean counterfeiting dollars, and Australia and Japan have tried to end its sales of amphetamines and heroin.

In interviews over the past three weeks, administration officials have denied that the renewed effort is part of an unstated initiative to topple Mr. Kim. But several officials say North Korea has stepped up its illicit trafficking and counterfeiting in part to make up for lost missile sales and a crackdown on cash transfers from North Koreans living in Japan, some of which are illegal.

“We think they are desperate to put more money into the nuclear program and we’re trying to cut that off,” said one senior official.

Some officials acknowledge that undermining Mr. Kim’s hold on power could be a side effect of the program, if it was successful. “That wasn’t the intent in drafting it,” said one senior official involved in the process. “Whether it could be one of the results is anyone’s guess.”

Several officials cautioned, however, that the new “tool kit” did not yet constitute a plan of action because the United States was only slowly trying to engage other nations in the strategy. They said some of the new techniques had already been carried out, but would not say which ones.

Details were described by officials in one intelligence agency and two other government agencies. One official of a foreign government who has been briefed on parts of it confirmed some of the elements. On Sunday evening, Scott McClellan, the White House press secretary, cast the effort as “complementary to our continued diplomatic efforts,” but insisted that some of the techniques had been used for some time.

“We have been working with our allies and partners for some time now to stop North Korea’s illegal activities, especially in counterfeiting and narcotics,” he said. “We have a responsibility to protect our citizens, our allies and our economies. North Korea cannot continue its involvement in illegal activities. It must make a strategic decision and eliminate its nuclear weapons program.”

Other officials said that while different agencies had been pursuing the North, the new effort represented the first time the White House was coordinating and expanding the tactics to put more pressure on Mr. Kim.

Several officials confirmed that the most recent proposal was drafted by Robert Joseph, the counter-proliferation chief at the National Security Council, before he left the administration in November.

Mr. Joseph is widely expected to be nominated for the post of under secretary of state for arms control and international security.

Two American officials cited, as an example of new pressure tactics, a Japanese law that goes into effect on March 1 that requires all ships to carry liability insurance against spills and other accidents. Almost no North Korean vessel meets the requirement, so it could halt most shipping traffic with North Korea.

Although the nuts and bolts of the proposed measures are not clear, officials appear to be working from lists they have been collecting of banks and companies that the North Koreans have been using. Tracking North Korean financial transactions has long been difficult; it often deals in cash, and through shell companies and unregulated banking centers.

White House officials have declined to say what role President Bush has played in the new strategy. But his dislike for Mr. Kim is well known, and his involvement in strategies to deal with him was described by one former official as “a lot more intense than you might think.”

Advisers, military officials and American and foreign diplomats who deal with Mr. Bush on North Korean issues say he frequently criticizes Mr. Kim’s human rights abuses, referring to him as “immoral” and “a tyrant,” according to one official who sat in on a recent meeting. In a meeting in December with President Roh Moo Hyun of South Korea, Mr. Bush spoke about how Mr. Kim lets his people starve.

“Roh said to him, ‘Yeah, he’s a bad guy, but we don’t have to say it in public,’ ” said one official who has reviewed notes of the session. Mr. Roh’s point was that turning the nuclear dispute into a personal confrontation, the way the Bush administration did with Saddam Hussein, could undercut any chance of diplomatic success in disarming North Korea.

Mr. Bush, the official recounted, responded, ” ‘Alright, I won’t say it publicly,’ or words to that effect, and so far he hasn’t.”

Officially, the Bush administration has never declared that “regime change” is its objective in North Korea, and Mr. Bush has expressed a willingness to offer a “security assurance” to North Korea pledging that the United States will not invade. Such an attack is considered nearly impossible, given North Korea’s ability to destroy Seoul, South Korea’s capital, about 40 miles from the border, and the fact that American intelligence does not know where the North’s nuclear arms or all of its nuclear facilities are.

But Mr. Bush has never made any such assurances about attacking North Korea’s economic lifelines. On Sunday, former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, who served under Mr. Bush’s father when North Korea was making what the C.I.A. later concluded were its first two nuclear bombs, raised the possibility of a broad economic crackdown.

Appearing on the ABC News program “This Week,” Mr. Baker told the host, George Stephanopoulos, that “there’s a big gap” between abandoning the six-nation negotiations that had been sporadically under way for the past 18 months “and going to military force.”

“There are many things we can do,” Mr. Baker added.

“Quarantine?” Mr. Stephanopoulos asked.

“Quarantine is one,” Mr. Baker said. “And perhaps the best one, of course, is sanctions by the United Nations Security Council for North Korea’s violation of her promises to the International Atomic Energy Agency and the global community.”

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