“미국, 북핵 최소 8개로 추정” (워싱턴 포스트, 2004. 4. 28)

“미국, 북핵 최소 8개로 추정”

(워싱턴=연합뉴스) 윤동영 특파원=미국은 북한의 `핵무기 2개 보유 가능성’이라는 공식 추정치를 수정하고 최소한 8개로 높여 잡기로 했다고 일간 워싱턴 포스트의 인터넷판이 28일 보도했다.

미국은 또 북한의 고농축 우라늄 핵프로그램도 2007년까지 실제 가동단계에 들어가 이후 매년 6개씩 핵무기를 추가 생산할 수 있는 핵물질을 만들게 될 것으로 결론을 내렸다고 이 신문은 덧붙였다.

미국 정보기관들은 지난해 여름 제1차 북핵 6자회담이 끝난 뒤 북한의 핵프로그램 수준에 대한 입장을 통일하기 위해 재평가 작업을 시작해 이달말 보고서를 완성한다. 보고서의 구체적 내용은 공개되지 않으나 앞으로 북한의 핵능력에 대한 공식 입장은 이 보고서에서 내린 결론에 따르게 된다.

그러나 이 신문은 “추정치는 대체로 정황 증거에 의존했기 때문에 구체적인 수치에 대해선 아직 기관마다 의견이 엇갈리고 있다”며 “에너지부는 더 높게 잡자고 주장하고, 국방정보국(DIA)은 우라늄 핵프로그램이 올해말이면 가동 가능하다고 보는데 비해 국무부 정보 부서는 북한의 핵 능력에 가장 회의적”이라고 전했다.

미국 정보기관들은 로스 앨러모스 핵연구소 소장을 지낸 시그프리드 헤커 박사를 비롯해 지난 1월 비공식으로 북한을 방문해 핵시설을 둘러본 시찰단이 입은 옷에 묻었던 아메리슘 같은 플루토늄 부산물을 정밀 분석한 결과와 북한의 폐연료봉 8천개 재처리 완료 상황 등을 이번 재평가에 활용했다.

이같은 상향 조정은 부시 행정부가 지난해 이라크전에 주력하는 동안 북한이 핵능력을 크게 키웠다는 점을 말해주는 대목이어서 부시 행정부가 북핵 위기에 잘못 대응했다는 비난을 초래할 가능성도 있다고 이 신문은 예상했다. 전문가들은 핵무기를 8개 가졌다는 것은 단순한 억지력을 넘어서 이웃국가 공격에 사용할 수도 있다는 뜻이라고 말하고 있다.

그러나 부시 행정부 일부 관계자들은 북한 핵보유 추정치를 상향 조정함으로써 이런 분위기가 북한 주변국들에 대해 북한 핵프로그램이 무조건 해체돼야 한다는 미국의 입장에 동조하도록 압력으로 작용하기를 기대하고 있다.

이와 관련해 딕 체니 미국 부통령은 최근 동북아 순방에서 북한이 자금조달을 위해 핵기술이나 물질을 테러조직 등에게 팔 가능성이 커지고 있기 때문에 북핵 문제의 외교적 해결을 위한 시간이 점점 다 하고 있다고 경고한 바 있다.

민간 연구소들은 북한의 핵능력에 대해 `최대 8-9개 보유(플루토늄 37-39kg 소요)’ `내년까지 4-8개 보유 및 2010년까지 매년 13개씩 증가’ 등으로 미국 정부보다 이미 높게 추정해왔다. 과학 및 국제안보연구소의 데이비드 올브라이트 소장은 부시 행정부에 대해 “너무 늦었다”고 말했다.

(워싱턴 포스트)—————————————————–

Korea Nuclear Estimate To Rise

U.S. Report to Say Country Has At Least 8 Bombs

By Glenn Kessler

The United States is preparing to significantly raise its estimate of the number of nuclear weapons held by North Korea, from “possibly two” to at least eight, according to U.S. officials involved in the preparation of the report.

The report, expected to be completed within a month, would reflect a new intelligence consensus on North Korea’s nuclear capabilities after that country’s decision last year to restart a nuclear reactor and plutonium-reprocessing facility that had been frozen under a 1994 agreement. Among the evidence used in making the assessment is a detailed analysis of plutonium byproducts found on clothing worn by members of an unofficial U.S. delegation that was allowed to visit North Korean nuclear facilities several months ago.

The increase in the estimate would underscore the strides North Korea has made in the past year as the Bush administration struggled to respond diplomatically while waging a war against Iraq in an unsuccessful effort to search for such weapons there.

Intelligence officials also have broadly concluded that a separate North Korean uranium-enrichment program will be operational by 2007, producing enough material for as many as six additional weapons a year, one U.S. official said.

With Democrat John F. Kerry’s presidential campaign planning to highlight the dangers of nuclear proliferation, the leap in Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities during President Bush’s tenure could leave the administration vulnerable to charges that it has mishandled the North Korea crisis. Experts said an arsenal of eight weapons means that North Korea could use its weapons to attack neighbors, instead of merely deterring a possible attack.

But some Bush administration officials believe the new estimate will help pressure North Korea’s neighbors to back the U.S. position that Pyongyang’s weapons programs must be dismantled without concessions. During a tour of Asia two weeks ago, Vice President Cheney warned that time is running out for diplomacy as an increasingly cash-strapped North Korea might seek to peddle its nuclear technology or fissile material — including, Cheney said, to terrorist groups.

The estimates are guesswork based largely on circumstantial evidence, and administration officials in several agencies have yet to agree on specific numbers. The Energy Department has pressed for a higher estimate of North Korea’s weapons and the Defense Intelligence Agency believes the uranium program will be operational at the end of this year, but the State Department’s intelligence arm has been the most skeptical. The differences in the estimates depend in part on determinations about the power and efficiency of the North Korean design.

Work on the report began late last summer, after the first round of six-nation talks on the North Korea crisis, when various government agencies sought a unified position on the extent of Pyongyang’s programs. Much of the report will not be made public, but its conclusions will guide official statements on North Korean capabilities.

In many ways, the official U.S. estimate of “possibly two” weapons lags significantly behind private-sector reports.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies in London concluded this year that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal could reach four to eight bombs over the next year and increase by 13 bombs per year by the end of the decade. The Institute for Science and International Security in Washington recently estimated that North Korea has a maximum of eight or nine weapons.

“It’s long overdue for them to do something,” David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, said of the administration.

Albright said that the January visit of the unofficial delegation — which included Siegfried S. Hecker, a former director of Los Alamos National Laboratory — brought back evidence that North Korea has reprocessed all 8,000 spent fuel rods that had been held in a cooling pond under a 1994 agreement negotiated by the Clinton administration.

In late 2002, Pyongyang evicted international inspectors observing the pond after the United States suspended shipments of fuel oil because, officials said, North Korea had nullified the 1994 deal by having a clandestine uranium program.

In February, CIA Director George J. Tenet told Congress: “The intelligence community judged in the mid-1990s that North Korea had produced one, possibly two, nuclear weapons. The 8,000 [spent fuel] rods the North claims to have processed into plutonium metal would provide enough plutonium for several more.” Tenet added that North Korea is “pursuing a production-scale uranium enrichment program” using technology provided by A.Q. Khan, a Pakistani metallurgist who recently admitted to making millions by providing nuclear equipment and know-how to other countries.

The delegation members provided samples of the clothing they wore during their tour of the Yongbyon facility, when the North Koreans showed Hecker a jar that they said contained recently reprocessed plutonium. Albright said traces of plutonium byproducts, such as americium, that collected on the clothing could be analyzed to indicate how recently the plutonium had been processed.

“I think it is generally accepted the North Koreans are probably telling the truth when they say some reprocessing activity took place,” said Gary Samore, a weapons expert who was the principal author of the London institute’s report.

The earlier estimate was based on calculations derived from the amount of plutonium North Korea was believed to possess — about seven to 11 kilograms — and the new estimate essentially reflects the number of additional weapons North Korea could produce from the plutonium derived from the 8,000 spent fuel rods. The calculation in part depends on determining how much plutonium is lost during reprocessing.

Albright said he reached his estimate of a maximum of nine weapons by calculating that North Korea possesses about 37 to 39 kilograms of plutonium and would need at least four kilograms per weapon.

U.S. officials have said Khan told interrogators that in the 1990s the North Koreans showed him three devices they identified as nuclear weapons. The report, which has not been confirmed, would suggest North Korea was more efficient in its use of plutonium than previously thought.

But Samore said he thought it was implausible that North Korea would show its weapons to an outsider, let alone keep them all in one place. He added that it was in Khan’s interest to assert that North Korea already had nuclear weapons when he began supplying materials for the uranium-enrichment program.

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